Post-mortem 2019W11-W13

The past 3 weeks has been tough still due to the overall market being sideways. The rumors of an upcoming recession in the US due to the yield-curve-inversion may have affected the big drop last Monday last week. My positions may have move significantly at the beginning to middle of the 3-week period but eventually losing their steam during last week. Whatever happens on the coming weeks, we'll be just reacting. Trade what the market gives. Next review will be for 2019Q1 (First Quarter).

2019W11

1. FB - Outlier for Monday. Magic closing at 111.60 pre run-off but closed EOD at 109.10. Pulled back but BO still valid on Wednesday. Retest of 104 previous resistance on Thursday. Closed at 104.10. Wednesday, woke at a negative (loss). Price went below BO point (104). Went as low as 99. Executed CL in tranches. But closed strong EOD at 106.5 with 2B value traded and long volume spike last Friday. I decided to buy back.
2. OPEN TRADE A- My decision to not take the trade of the subtle BO seems proving right as price went back inside DB. The next day, made a BO on PM sesh. ATH at 14.72. Closed strong at 14.64. Bought a minimum tranche EOD. Watch out for the 14.72 wick ATH resistance. No continuation the next day. Closed with red candle on Wednesday. But BO still valid. Thursday, it closed at 14.42. Second red candle after BO. Then an ATH close at 14.90 on Friday. Good volume.
3. OPEN TRADE B- Not much movement. Still hovering around 20MA. TS at 11.60 (breakeven).
4. FGEN - CL hit just before recess on Tuesday. Haven’t got the chance to execute CL as I was already on my way to work. Tranched my CL on PM sesh. Sold at 21.20-21.05.
5. OPEN TRADE C- Not on my priority list but price is nearing BO levels. Friday, woke up with BO notification from watcher. Bought in tranches 10.86-10.94.
6. CPM - Someone posted a hint on social media. And I happened to know the stock. Bought on the 52WH BO. Had to sell this one even though I already had a small gain. But the buy was caused by a hyped post and not of preparation and planning.

Observation and Comments

1. I got a slippage case. I woke up already at a loss beyond my CL level. (FB)
2. Got whipsawed after cutting near EOD. Price closed higher and strong. (FB)
3. I was careless to allow myself to get hyped and executed a trade out of it.
4. A stock had worked its way up my watchlist intra week.
5. Even 52W high BOs are not that strong enough to have a continuation in this kind of market situation.

Suggested Fix/Solutions

1. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – Alpha advised all blueprint students that are having a hard time finding their kill in the market to stay on the sidelines and take a break. Spend the time doing something else that is still productive. Don’t force the trades.
2. In cutting losses. Maybe save the last tranche of CL for the EOD. To avoid getting whipsawed. And to align the buying strategy with the selling strategy. Make them both half-intra, half-EOD.
3. Be always on the lookout for stocks on my WL that may have raised significantly intra-week and may be worthy to be on my priority list.
4. Don’t ever enter a trade again that was caused by a hyped post. Especially if the stock is not even on my WL. Which also means not having a plan.

2019W12

1. OPEN TRADE A- Nice retest of previous resistance and continuation of BO. Closed at 11.32. Bearish engulfing candle formed the next day. Prepare to sell if BO gets invalidated. The next day, it somehow recovered from yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle. Managed to close back up at 11.26. Managed to breach its ATH/IPO price of 11.80 intraday. But closed below it with a star candle at 11.72 on Friday.
2. OPEN TRADE B - Still slow. But created ATH close after ATH close. Too bad I just have a small size allocation on this and the stock haven’t consolidated yet for a chance to buy up. Small range candle after a good rally from the past days. If stock does a short conso, add shares at BO of conso. Look out for the BO of conso to add shares. But be careful not to push the AEP more than enough so that I still have a breathing room for when the price does a pull back.
3. OPEN TRADE C - Still doing conso and 20MA still holding as support. - Woke up with a DB BO. Sustained the BO until EOD and closed at new ATH of 12.78. Added 3,000 shares. AEP at 11.66. Total shares at 15,000. - Red shooting star after a good rally yesterday. Might conso or SOR(?). - Strong close despite the gap down open. ATH close at 13.04 breaking its psychological resistance of 13.00. 
4. FB  - No continuation for the huge volume last Friday. RSI getting weak, Sold half at -4.9%. Closed at 104.00 which exactly at support. The next couple of days, finally felt impatient with the stock doing down days. That 2B volume last Friday somehow didn’t really had a follow through this week. Sold all remaining shares at 102.50. But…. Closed again at 104.

Observation and Comments 

1. I was blinded by the 2B traded value in FB that I failed to notice that RSI is getting weak and going down further from 70 level.
2. ATH plays proving to be a good choice in a non-trending market. All remaining positions in my port are ATH plays.

Suggested Fix/Solutions 

1. Don’t base trades on volume or massive value traded alone. Check other indicators especially the ones on your rules. Don’t outweigh your system rules with data that aren’t in your system.
2. TRADER DEVELOPMENT (RIFT Live Dubai) – a glimpse of the Alpha Setup. Only trades boss BO with multi-year and ATH plays. Why? These Boss BOs move faster, with volume and with momentum/strength. Less resistance. 

2019W12

1. DMW - Trail Stop was hit near EOD at 11.20. I was trying to sell half of my position but Investa or my browser had a glitch and froze for a bit resulting to me doing twice the process which sold all my position. Price closed at 11.32 forming an evening star pattern (SOR?). Buy back strat before/during/after BO of IPO price at 11.80 - No position at the moment. Recovered from yesterday’s down move. Started slow on the morning but nicely closed at 11.50. Watch out for BO of 11.80. Execute buyback plan if BO of IPO price.
2. OPEN TRADE A - Down 0.50% from last week with a green hammer. - Long wicks dojis. Closely watch on the following days. - Building up at ATH levels but with weak candles. Watch closely for BO. - Opened at DB50 but closed near box bottom. RSI below 70 now. Set TS at 20MA. - Three days down with below average volume. But created a long red candle just bouncing off 20MA. Selling from previous days already wiped out my 17-day gains down to 1.78% left. TS was supposed to be at break of DB bottom but my position is small that I will lose on comms and tax. But 20MA hasn’t snap yet, trend still valid. Set TS at break of 20MA (breakeven).
3. OPEN TRADE B- One of the few greens in the sea of reds. Managed to close on a new ATH - Slowly moving up despite the overall market sentiment. - Just keeps going. New ATH at 13.44. - Significant move of selling pressure today forming a bearish engulfing candle. Set TS at 20MA or 12.50 level. - Lost its strength together with FDC. Gapped down opening. Rose up to yesterday’s close but went back down to close at a red inverted hammer at 12.84. Lost a third of its gain from the top. Set TS at 20MA or 12.50.
4. OPEN TRADE C- Not on priority list but price nearing historical resistance at 2.50. PUA. RSI Daily and Weekly above 70. Trade value below 5M. - Finally went above 5M traded value and BO of historical resistance of 2.50. Bought TR1 10k shares at EOD 2.57. But made a mistake on calculating my position size. Should have bought 20k shares for TR1. - Kind of pissed that it did a red candle right after I enter. Might do a retest of 2.50 levels. - No new high today. Might do a conso. - Subtle BO of 2-day conso. Added TR2 of 10k shares at EOD 2.61.

Observation and Comments

1. Computing for the right position size based on risk is tricky if you’ll be doing tranching.
2. I became complacent with ATH play positions and was proved wrong by the market this week. Some of my holdings are losing their steam. Wiped out some of the gains.
3. A stock made it on my priority list intraweek. Finally making more than 5M value traded when it broke out of its historical resistance.
4. Having a small allocation hindered me to do tranche selling.

Suggested Fix/Solutions

1. Try computing for the position size based on my first tranche price and cut loss price then adjust accordingly after buying TR2.
2. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – MG – be a DEFENDER. Always defend your capital and profits. Constant vigilant. Never let your guard down with the unpredictable market. Never be too complacent.
3. Having a quick screener run daily helps pick up some stocks that made significant move to be on your WL.
4. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – YZ – Should have executed sell half at DB bottom as per planned. Focus on the real objective of the exercise – practice execution – and not on comms and tax or gains.