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Post-mortem 2019W08-W10

This one will be a long entry as it contains 3 summary of my weekly reviews. Overall, it is still a tough market for BO/TF plays. I only got one outlier position which is still on the green side but its 20MA is now catching with the price. We'll see on W11 if price will bounce on 20MA or price will break down. Anyway, here are my trade summary for the past 3 weeks.


2019W08


 

  1. GREEN - Bo AT 3.30. Bought at 3.32 when I saw it rallying in the morning. But my biased didn’t materialized and price went back down as low as 3.20 where I thought of BOSO. But managed to stop myself from doing BOSO as it’s not my entry rules. I CL at 3.26-3.28. Price closed at 3.26.
  2. BLOOM -Intraday BO but not strong enough to confirm BO by EOD.
  3. MRSGI - BO intraday. Closed and confirmed BO at EOD. Bought TR1 at 3.09. Rallied a bit at open the next day only to close back down at 3.00 below BO point at recess. CL hit. Exited with 3.74% loss. Will wait for buy-back scenario. ATH plays are still a priority.
  4. FDC - Retest in the morning. But eventually had to cut when it dipped below BO point the second time. Exit with 3.40% loss. Then price went back up to BO point at 13.80. My frustration is growing again after two cuts but I just remind myself that small losses are part of the game.
  5. OPEN POSITION A- BO of flag. Added some shares at 12.24. Closed at 12.44
  6. OPEN POSITION B- Closed above 6M resistance. Bought TR1 at 10.60. Went back below BO point the next day but still within CL. HODL.


2019W09


  1. OPEN POSITION A- DB BO during AM sesh. Went up to 3.42 during the PM sesh. I entered small allocation at 3.41 with 10k shares but I trimmed it down by 6k leaving 4k shares after realizing my entry was too early to wait for an EOD confirmation. Closed at 3.42. The next day, I added more shares at 3.44-3.50 during the PM sesh. AEP at 3.47. Anticipating BO of MY tomorrow or in the following week. 3rd day, no MY BO. Woke up at -3% loss. It dipped lower during open but luckily I was still asleep. I would’ve execute CL if I was awake when it happened. Eventually price recovered and closed with a doji at 3.50. 4th day, retest of 3.30 level but sellers won EOD but volume was still under average. Current position size is at 50% of intended total position size. At -4.44% loss but didn’t executed CL.
  2. DMW- Trimmed down my position intraday as it was going down. Then I sold all my shares at EOD at a -5.35% loss.


2019W10



  1. GREEN - Had to cut my position at -5.4% loss. Bias invalidated already last Friday but I hoped for it to recover, which is clearly wrong. BO already invalidated last Friday, I should’ve at least sold half at -3% that day.
  2. OPEN TRADE A- Made a 52WH BO at past 2PM. Bought 1K shares near EOD. I was thinking of adding some more at EOD when BO was confirmed but I am still considering overall market sentiment which is bearish/sideways. Will wait for the next BO or continuation for my next tranche.
  3. OPEN TRADE B- Nearing 20MA. Prepare to sell at break even.
  4. OPEN TRADE C- 52WH BO when I woke up. At recess it was trading above 106. It went down below 106 at PM sesh. Past 2PM, I bought a small allocation at 105.70. Another tranche at 105.30. Price action went crazy near EOD because of the wide spread between 105.50 and 106.50 until it closed flat at 105.00. Added my final tranche at EOD.
  5. FDC - DB BO intraday but less average volume. Closed at DB top box with a Doji. Then another Doji next day with less than average volume. Watch closely next week.

Observation and Comments
  • 2019W08
  1. I still feel frustrated when CLs are hit one after the other.
  2. I entered GREEN in the morning even when I already know that I should not be buying it in the morning. I have to be somewhere else during closing so it added pressure on buying the BO during morning session.
  • 2019W09
  1. With overall market condition. BO plays are limited. Stocks hitting MY and ATH resistance are having a hard time rallying.
  2. Having a looser CL levels manage to get me stay in trades but exposing me to more risks than having a tighter stops before.
  3. Not having to wake up early to monitor the opening and morning sesh helped me avoid entering half baked BOs and rallies that happen during those times. Minimizing early entries and exits or whipsaws. And monitoring the PM sesh will force me to trade only near EOD or EOD.
  4. Monitoring fewer positions take out a lot of stress and effort in my daily routine. Leaving more time for reflection and review.
  • 20190W10
  1. I somehow let myself convinced me that it is OK to widen my CL level (GREEN). Justifying it by my tight CL levels from the past trades. But I totally forgot that CLs are not only about the percentage loss but also about the invalidation of your bias.
  2. Having to pass on BOs happening intraday helped me to avoid false BOs. Particularly BOs during morning sesh. (WLCON & FDC)
  3. With the overall market sentiment, it makes me feel uneasy of entering BOs for TF. Some experienced traders advised to ‘adapt with what the market gives’.

Suggested Fix/Solutions
  • 20190W08
  1. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – Had a chat with three traders. Tranche selling or CL to avoid being stopped out early on a trade. One trader advised buying small position size first on first tranche to reduce losses to small ones. Another trader also advised for me to consider BOSO on some trades especially if stock’s DNA are fakeouts. FMC also mentioned about the disconnect between buying EOD then cutting Intraday.
  2. Don’t be pressured into buying intraday if you have prior appointments later in the. There will always be another play.
  3. Although I already adjusted my Boss BO entry to minimum of 6M BO, some BOs are still weak and turn into fakeouts. With the current condition of the market (Sideways, coming from Down Trend), Most BO are fakeouts (FO).
  • 20190W09
  1. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – watched a youtube video where Behind The Trades summarizes the speakers’ talk from the recent TRX Forum. Where Ser Tor and Akio both discussed briefly some of their setups. And one key common factor on their entries are they only enter their setups if (A) it is a 52WH or ATH BO and (B) RSI is => 70. I can use this filter to refine my entries and at the same time filter and trade only the best setups. Minimizing fakeouts given the overall current condition of the market.
  2. Tranche-ing my CL might help minimize being stopped out early in my trades. But I also have to consider the risk of widening the range of my CL. I can use 3% as my first CL tranche and 5% or 6% as my second CL tranche. Which gives me about 4-4.5% CL range.
  3. I’ll continue practicing to trade only near or during EOD. Avoiding to wake up during AM sesh will help me to limit my trades and wait for BO confirmation at EOD.
  • 2019W10
  1. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – Mane reminded me to always consider the technical cut when doing a trade. For there’s no point of waiting for a percentage cut if your bias is already invalidated. Like if the support is already broken (for BOSO) or if price already went back below BO levels (for BOs).
  2. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – Mane reminded me of what the primary objective of this exercise – to gather data without losing money. Experience the market. Identify my strengths and weaknesses. So don’t feel frustrated for a CL streak. I’m still making progress by identifying the issues on why the CL streak is happening and providing a fix for it. Gather data as much as I can for when the time comes that I’ll be doing live trades, at least I am somewhat ready and have experience already a bit if what the market can be. The exercise is not only about P/Ls but also the lessons your learn along the way.
  3. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – One trader advised me to try to use small allocations on this kind of market sentiment to lessen my losses.
  4. TRADER DEVELOPMENT – Two traders advised me to try to ‘listen’ on what the market is saying. Try to observe on what plays the market is giving us. Ceiling plays are common last few weeks. BOs are just good for a few days or a week. TF plays are hard to find with the exception of a few outliers. So BOSO/Swing may be a good setup to practice while the market is still on sideways/bearish side. But just still be careful on which stocks to trade.



I have done 11 trades for the past 5 weeks. And not a single of them was a winning trade. All are cut loss trades. And that bothered me for a bit. Until my accountability partner reminded me of what's the real purpose of doing this exercise. I was sidetracked there for a bit there that I overlooked the other things that I am 'gaining' from my trades. I may not be growing my virtual capital yet but I can feel that I am progressing in my trading journey one way or another. 
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