Post-mortem 2019W01-W05

Trade Log
January 27, 2018
0104 +4GMT

I started forward testing UTAH (Trend Following) using Investagram's vTrade app beginning in January with a 50K capital. I'm still undecided if I'm gonna make this a weekly or monthly thing. Below are snapshots of my trades for the first four weeks.

Current Analytics

2019W01

1. ABA - RFB was a BOSO at 0.59. Then I sold at 0.62 which I'm not sure why. No journal yet.
2. ATN - RFB break of minor DB at 1.43. Sold at 1.45 for reason that I can't remember now. No journal yet.
3. FDC - RFB break of minor DB at EOD at 13.20. ATH at 13.30

2019W02

1. X - Reversal Play. Bought this before January. I confess that someone's post hyped me. I checked the charts and price is nearing ZS. RFB,  bought at EOD at break of DB (bull flag) at 1.67. RFS, jumped to another stock. Sold at 1.76 to buy ABA who made a boss breakout. Not in my watch list. Not qualified in my system rules.
2. ABA - RFB boss breakout at 0.71 and 0.72. RFS, Sold the next day when it closed back to breakout point at 0.70. Bought again at 0.70 the next day when 0.70 held as new support.
3. FDC - Sold at 12.54. RFS price went back below breakout point. Wasn't watching the market closely. Price went below cut loss price.

2019W03

1. NOW - Bought now for unplanned reversal play or ZS. Play didn't materialize. Sold before cut loss point. Not in my watch list. Not qualified in my system rules.
2. WLCON - RFB, Bought at break of DB at 12.60. Sold at breakdown of new DB at 13.46. RFS, Trail stop hit. Good and planned trade.
3. FGEN - RFB, Bought at 12.70 boss breakout. Sold at 12.05 break of 20MA. RFS, Trail stop hit. Good and planned trade.
4. ABA - RFS, Sold at 0.69 when it went back below breakout point. 
5. PHR - RFB, Bought at 6.67 break of 3M resistance. RFS, old at 6.60 when it went below breakout point intraday. Price went back up to 6.67 confirming new support.

2019W04

1. FPH - RFB, Bought at 75.50, break of multi-year resistance. RFS, Sold few days later when price went below breakout point.
2. ATN - RFB, Bought at 1.57, break of DB and 1 fluc away from breaking 5M resistance. RFS, Sold at 1.53 when price neared cut loss level. Bought back 1.55 before EOD. Sold next day when price went back below breakout point.
3. MAH - RFB, Bought at 1.41 DB breakout. RFS, Sold next day when breakout was invalidated. Held below cut loss level in hopes that breakout will follow through. It took long enough for me to accept that I'm wrong.

Notable Trades

FGEN Daily

WLCON Daily

Observations & Comments:

1. Some breakout entries die. Maybe because of overall market trend being sideways. Tempted me to trade other setups such as reversal plays which I don't have system for.
2. Can't remember reason for entry/exit on some other trades.
3. Jumping from one trade to another just because other plays are moving caused by FOMO. Resulting to over-trading.
4. Revenge trading. Entering trades that I was previously stopped even without proper setup.
5. Entering unplanned trades with different setups caused by FOMO. Resulting to over-trading
6. Notable good trades on W03 - ABA, FGEN & WLCON. Entry and Exit executed as per system rules. Good job!
7. I notice that executing cut loss is getting easier. Average loss at -4.23%. 6 out of 9 cut loss are below -4% rule, 1 overshot slightly. and 2 went way beyond.
8. 5 out of 14 trades are unplanned. 
9. Overall portfolio down by -10.72% (including trades before January 2019).
10. 5 Wins over 9 Losses. 36% Hit Rate is generally OK but overall gain is wiped out by the losing trades. Especially the big loss that exceeds -4%.

Fix/Solutions:

1. Be selective on my trades specially when its evident that the overall market condition is not favorable for UTAH.
2. Bought a physical journal/diary to start writing journal for every trades.
3. Avoid watching the market frequently so that I can avoid the temptation of trading other moving stocks or setups. Stick to trading setups for UTAH. And wait for InvestaWatcher notification before checking my trades.
4. Subscribed to InvestaWatcher. Adjusted range of cut loss level in InvestaWatcher to 1-2 flucs above -4% to accommodate for the lag or delayed message.
5. PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE. FOLLOW YOUR RULES! 

EDIT:
Trade Log
February 02, 2018
1154 +4GMT


2019W05

1. HOUSE - RFB, MAs are in PUA, breakout of Multi-Year Resistance / 52W High. Bought first tranche before recess at 8.93, second tranche at EOD. Conviction on buying intraday: MAs in PUA, RSI Daily and Weekly above 70. Gap up open with volume. Position still open.

HOUSE Daily

Observations & Comments (for 2019W05):

1. I tried to avoid over-trading. I stayed away from the market as much as I can and only checked the charts when my watcher notified me of hits.
2. To further address the issue of over-trading, I avoided entering breakouts just for the sake of trading them. I tried to assess now if the reward is good against the risk. Prioritizing is the word.
• BLOOM was on my 'SOON' list. It broke out of DB and 5M resistance with volume, but closed back below it but still a long green candle. So I put it in my 'NOW' list. Next day, it made a gap up. Although the price is still within 4% from breakout point during intraday, I didn't enter. Volume was weak during the morning. And there is another 6M+ resistance just 4% away from the 6M resistance. I planned on entering at the break of the 6M+ instead. But BLOOM closed below it's 6M resistance with a red shooting star candle. I though it was a good call to not buy the 6M breakout. Let's see if it breaks the 6M+ resistance next week.
• CPG was also in my NOW list. It broke out of its 9M resistance at 0.48 but I didn't buy it upon noticing another 1Y resistance at 0.52. It was good call as 0.52 resisted and price went back down to 0.4950. New plan is to enter at break of 0.52 and TP at next resistance at 0.65-0.66. TF if 0.66 breakout.
• GREEN was also in my NOW list. But the plan was to enter at the break of 2.26. I was watching the opening when the ceiling play happened. From the original plan, I identified 2.40 as a resistance. So when the price gapped up and opened at 2.42, I thought, if 2.40 holds as support, I'll buy the breakout. Price went down and touched 2.40 but still didn't buy it. I realized it was an unplanned trade. Rather, it was an impromptu plan. And mistakes usually happen if you take unplanned trades.
• HOUSE. Bought the breakout of multi-year resistance. ATH is 18% away. A good RRR. TF if ATH breakout.

 Fix/Solutions:

1. I need to include plan for these extreme scenarios where prices gaps up and does a ceiling play. So that I can react and adjust accordingly.
2. Issues from the first four weeks have been addressed.
• I'm being more selective and systematic on choosing which trades to take. Needs more improvement though. Observe in the coming weeks.
• By being more selective and not over-watching the market, I avoided over-trading and jumping from one trade to another.
• I can easily remember details in my trades now as I right them in my journal as soon as I can.

It was a good first month of forward testing for me. I am happy with the results of identifying and addressing my trading issues. I maybe down by 10% on my virtual port. But I feel like I gained a considerable amount of improvement on my trading psychology and on my trading system itself.

I was talking to someone about my struggles when I realized that I am looking at my issues the wrong way. It is wrong to measure progress with gains. There are far more opportunities in accepting your mistakes and acting on it. As one mentor put it:

-End-