Post Mortem 2019W19-W23

The past weeks has been both tiring but fulfilling. Short but fun.

I was on vacation for three weeks (W21-W23) in the Philippines. One reason was to go to the 2-day Technical Intensive Program for trading. The other one is to take my family back here with me as they can't be out of this country for 6 consecutive months or their visa will expire.

At first I thought I would still be able to do my usual trading routine during my vacation. But my focus was divided as soon as I landed and saw my wife and my kid.

I decided to not make new trade as new positions tend to require close monitoring in case your stop losses are hit. So I just let my open positions run and waited for my trail stop to get hit.

2019W23 Portfolio Summary

2019W19-W23 Closed Trades

2019W19-W23 Trade Logs

Closed Trades

1. CPM – I originally bought this stock because I was hyped. I saw a post on social media about a stock that broke out of its MYH resistance at 2.30 and I happened to know that it was CPM as I was eyeing on it but didn’t bother including it on my watchlist back then as it has less than 5M value traded. So I sold my first position for this stock the after a few days as it was bought without a plan but it was still on my stalk list. I plotted key levels and made a plan for re-entry. It entered on the breakout of its 52WH at 2.50 levels. It created a small DB and made a breakout again where I bought another tranche. It made a short run-up before slowing down into consolidation and made a DB breakout where I bought my last tranche. But price went back inside the DB and continued its consolidation before making a breakout again reaching 2.94 as its top breaching its 2.82 historical resistance. I sold when price went below 2.82 levels and even pierced the 20MA intraday. Small gain of 4% at 43-days hold.
2. HLCM – I bought HLCM at the break of 10.80 major resistance and at the same time its DB box top. I bought at 10.88 near EOD and at 10.90 EOD. It consolidated for two weeks before making another breakout where I bought another tranche at 11.34. It consolidated for another week before making the big run-up to 16.00. I was up by 40% that day at the top. And then it started falling. I sold half on the 3rd day of the decline when it closed below 2 key levels of SAR at 15.00 and 14.00. It went sideways for a week before breaking the 20MA where I sold all my remaining shares. Where my average selling price was at 25%. Almost half from the top. 57-days hold. 
3. SSI – I bought SSI at the break of 2.95 major resistance and 52WH. The stock consolidated for a bit and eventually pierced the next major resistance at 3.30 where I added a tranche only for the price to go back down the key level and went back inside the previous DB. I sold at the break of 20MA with a breakeven trade. 24-days hold.

Open Trades

1. OPEN POSITION A (since W7) – the stock just continued its DB consolidation. The price even pierced the 20MA and 50MA intraday only to closed back up forming a doji with a loooong lower wick. Luckily I don’t trade during the morning session so I was able to stay on the trade. I’m sure I would be selling once I see the price breached two MAs in one day. The price kissed the 20MA before making a run-up again even breaching the 16.00 psychological resistance. It closed at 15.98 on W23. Trail stops aren’t hit so I’m still holding the position for 116 days now. 

Observation and Comments

1. I was feeling FOMOed by the other stocks that are moving faster than my positions and by the stocks/setups that are on my watchlist that materialized when I was on vacation.
2. A disadvantage of EOD trading, you miss buying/adding shares when the move happens in the morning session. An advantage meanwhile, you can avoid intraday whipsaws. 
3. Overall market was fearful during the period but market leaders are barely affected. 
4. I thought I could still do the same routines for trading during my 3-week vacation. My focus was divided between trading and other things pertaining to my vacation.

Action Plans

1. I was feeling FOMO, yes. I thought of the missed percentage gains. But I managed to not give in to the emotion and avoided chasing/buying the flying stocks. “You can’t changed your feelings but you can change how you react to them” - JB 
2. Learn to accept both the pros and cons of EOD trading. Understand that you are trading the advantage of buying on a confirmed breakout on EOD or near EOD against buying an uncertain breakout in the morning or early afternoon. 
3. The market now is on a sideways and still not an easy market for newbies. Stick with the market leaders and the easy trades first. 
4. This is my first vacation since I started trading. Create a routine that is suited when I am on vacation or choose to not trade at all like what I just did the past three weeks.

Overall, my portfolio is still down by 3.45% but if I include my unrealized gain on my open position my total equity might be up by 10-12% already. Slowly, my few winning trades are able to cover up my many small losses. If I have just put the right position sizing on my winning trades, it would’ve been a better trade. But hey, I am doing this for these exact reasons. To know the right and wrongs of the system and trading in general without losing real money. I am collecting data so that when I jumped to trading with real money – I already have enough knowledge and confidence to execute my trades correctly.